Ali two days almost fell off a Su Ning, why

[Abstract] Ali turnover growth rate may be lower than the industry average, and Jingdong is almost two times the industry level.


text / Yin Sheng (WeChat public number: value line)

affected by the slowdown in revenue growth and the devaluation of the renminbi, Ali two days has fallen by $about 17000000000, from a loss of only a poor Suning $about 2000000000. Factors leading to its growth slowdown include: the impact of Jingdong, China’s electricity supplier as a whole into the normal growth of their own size, smart phone dividends disappear, the ratio of mobile monetization is lower than the PC side, etc..

just released the second quarter (first quarter and fiscal year 2016) earnings, the Alibaba to produce a quite surprising answer: during the period of the company’s revenue was 20 billion 200 million yuan, an increase of only 28%, four quarters before all above 40%, and go before growth faster.

on the surface, this is mainly because Chinese retail business accounted for most of the revenue growth of only 25%, the four quarter before, the growth rate was above 30%, this level may have been lower than the same period China of the whole network shopping market growth. Cloud computing business may be a rare bright spot, an increase of more than 100%, but the current proportion is very low, so the overall did not have much effect.

is perhaps the shock of the news, plus the day before yesterday since the devaluation of the RMB — this may drag on the sea Amoy business, on the other hand, will have a negative impact on the valuation, because stocks are in dollars, the company’s share price in the past two days has dropped to 10%.

as for profit, is basically verified before in "Yin Alibaba profit or enter the wide oscillation period in the judgment:" during the period of its net profit rose 148% to 30 billion 800 million yuan, but thanks to the $24 billion 700 million revenue deal with equity stripping, if according to the non GAAP, in fact only growth of 30%.

Alibaba for such a high gross margin business model, the level of revenue growth is critical to the final profit growth. And in all the factors leading to the slowdown in revenue growth, some are temporary, some with uncertainty, while others are irreversible. Recognizing these is critical to assessing the value of their investments. Specifically, they mainly include the following points:

first, the impact of Jingdong. Jingdong second quarter growth in the size of the transaction amount, equivalent to more than 8% of Alibaba retail transactions last year. Alibaba’s transaction volume growth rate may be lower than the industry average, while Jingdong is almost two times the industry level, it is robbing Ali share. Look at this, maybe you will understand why Ali to invest heavily in suning.

second, China >

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